Predictions and Hypotheses
A while back - by way of Tommi's S60 Application Blog - I came across Tomi T. Ahonen's brilliant post about the mobile phone as the 7th mass media. Ahonen compares the mobile phone to earlier mass media and - as a remark to those that complain about the mobile experience not matching those of a TV or PC - suggests to focus on the benefits the mobile has over other mass media. Ahonen then lists five characteristics that make the mobile the inherently superior mass media. Two of these characteristics has rummaged around my head since reading this piece: how personal phones are and how close we keep them:
"We don't share our phones even with our spouces, its that personal. Some may think their internet is personal, but even if it may be for some, as a rule, the internet is not personal. It seems personal, but we typically share our internet access at home with our family (children using the family PC etc) and at work our employers have rights to snoop around our e-mails and stored files etc."
"Seven out of ten people sleep with the phone within arm's reach even at night - and the vast majority of those have the phone in bed, yes thats true - that is how close is our relationship to our phone. We do take it to the bathroom with us."
In a similar way at Stephen Johnston's blog, I came across a post on Mark Anderson from Strategic News Service giving a talk at Nokia House in Helsinki, Finland. Anderson talks about his 10 predictions for 2007 and specifically addresses mobile phone issues (that sort of figures…). Anderson also addresses the closeness between people and their phones, and predicts 2007 to be the year the mobile phone will come through as a payment device. Here is a video of Anderson's talk:
Stephen Johnston's post includes his notes from Anderson's talk and they pretty much sum up the video. I will just highlight those of Anderson's remarks, which I took most notice of.
- Oil Prices
- Will not come down again, but increase. To $80/barrel on to $100/barrel and then back down to $80. Just for the heck of it - oil prices not determined by supply and demand.
- Phone as payment device, authentication using fingerprint swipe
- Technology ready for some time, but carriers have been holding back. 2007 will be the year they see the light. Anderson thinks mobile "device" w. swipe will replace keys etc. To me, this seems like techno lust thinking and I think it sort of goes against what we have learnt about tangible interfaces over the last 5-10 years.
- Mesh and parallel computing
- Nobody really knows how to program these computers, except maybe Cray. Microsoft does not know. Mesh computing coming to mobiles.
- Advertising and social networking using location
- DONT: "Shoes are $10 off at the mall up the street". DO: "Where are my kids?". Young people will use technology to re-create lost nuclear family.
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